Sentimental Propagation Model of Stock Investors Based on Symmetric Triangular Fuzzy Set
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摘要: 投资者情绪是股票市场中普遍存在的一种非理性行为, 是导致股票价格波动的重要因素. 本文采用模糊集合理论, 从微观视角下研究股票投资者情绪的传播过程. 采用对称三角模糊集合描述股票投资者思维的模糊性, 用模糊股价预期表示投资者情绪, 建立了股票投资者情绪的传播模型, 提出了三种基本的投资者情绪传播方式. 以股吧社区中的投资者情绪传播为例, 说明了所提出的股票投资者情绪传播模型的有效性.Abstract: As a universal irrational behavior in stock market, investor sentiment is a significant factor leading to the fluctuation of stock price. Based on fuzzy sets theory, the propagation process of stock investor sentiment is studied from a micro perspective. The symmetrical triangular fuzzy set is used to depict fuzziness of stock investors' viewpoints, and the fuzzy stock price expectation for investor sentiment. The propagation model of stock investor sentiment is proposed, where three basic propagation types of investors' sentiment are introduced. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated via the investor sentiment propagation in the “guba”community.
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图 2 模糊股价预期中心传播时式(8)最大值的求取
Fig. 2 How the max in (8) is achieved for center propagation of fuzzy stock expectation
图 4 模糊股价预期不确定性传播时式(12)最大值的求取
Fig. 4 How the max in (12) is achieved for uncertainty propagation function of fuzzy stock expectation
图 5 X的无条件隶属度函数
Fig. 5 Unconditional membership function of fuzzy set X under uncertainty propagation of fuzzy stock expectation
图 6 模糊股价预期中心及不确定性传播
Fig. 6 Center and uncertainty propagation of fuzzy stock expectation
图 8 闭环投资者情绪传播示意图
Fig. 8 Close-loop network diagram of investors' sentiment propagation
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