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摘要: 随着大量移动设备的出现，准确和高效的轨迹预测有助于提高面向位置的应用和服务的质量和水平.针对现有方法对轨迹不确定性缺乏有效建模的问题，提出了基于非参数密度估计的不确定轨迹终点预测方法.在轨迹建模及模型训练阶段，利用非参数估计对起点与终点相同的轨迹构建基于密度分布的不确定轨迹模型；在轨迹预测阶段，将待预测轨迹视为轨迹数据流，并通过KS（Kolmogorov-Smirnov）检验方法与具有相同起点的不确定轨迹模型进行匹配，其中匹配程度最高的不确定轨迹即为预测轨迹.通过真实轨迹数据集上的实验表明，与现有各类主要轨迹预测方法相比，本方法在不同条件下的预测效率与准确性都有较明显优势.Abstract: With the popularization of a large number of mobile devices, the accurate and efficient trajectory prediction could help to improve the service quality of location-oriented applications. To solve the problem of less effectiveness existing in modeling for uncertain trajectories, we propose a method for predicting the destination of uncertain trajectories using the non-parametric density estimation method. In the modeling stage, the uncertain trajectory model between the same origin and destination is constructed with the method of non-parametric estimation to represent the density distribution feature. In the trajectory prediction stage, the trajectory to be predicted is regarded as a data stream. And it is matched with the uncertain trajectory having the same origin through the KS (Kolmogorov-Smirnov) hypothesis testing. Then the optimal matching uncertain trajectory is the prediction result and its destination is the predictive destination. The Experiments on real trajectory datasets indicate that the proposed method has obvious advantages in prediction efficiency and accuracy under different conditions, as compared to the existing trajectory prediction methods.1) 本文责任编委 曾志刚
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图 5 不确定轨迹预测的累计密度及其误差变化
Fig. 5 Accumulation density and error of uncertain trajectory prediction
表 1 数据集上各算法的预测准确性对比
Table 1 Prediction accuracy comparison of several methods on Geolife
样本规模 MBM BNM RBM NNM UDTM 30% 0.496 0.51 0.434 0.552 0.671 0.515 0.511 0.491 0.549 0.663 0.506 0.489 0.495 0.548 0.653 $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ 0.508 0.524 0.467 0.561 0.660 0.523 0.498 0.426 0.548 0.673 0.502 0.495 0.464 0.547 0.674 60% 0.674 0.630 0.618 0.694 0.860 0.652 0.634 0.633 0.716 0.827 0.654 0.660 0.665 0.749 0.855 $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ 0.696 0.643 0.585 0.729 0.847 0.687 0.632 0.627 0.717 0.861 0.650 0.654 0.644 0.732 0.861 90% 0.793 0.749 0.761 0.861 0.916 0.807 0.745 0.729 0.861 0.897 0.794 0.800 0.750 0.861 0.900 $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ 0.799 0.784 0.771 0.863 0.890 0.775 0.780 0.706 0.860 0.894 0.802 0.767 0.771 0.839 0.900 
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表 2 T-Drive数据集上各算法的预测准确性对比
Table 2 Prediction accuracy comparison of several methods on T-Drive
样本规模 MBM BNM RBM NNM UDTM 30% 0.519 0.495 0.49 0.593 0.705 0.511 0.513 0.444 0.596 0.699 0.477 0.512 0.482 0.579 0.708 $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ 0.520 0.510 0.467 0.586 0.719 0.535 0.506 0.488 0.601 0.721 0.521 0.505 0.480 0.594 0.702 60% 0.691 0.659 0.620 0.780 0.898 0.680 0.688 0.683 0.747 0.895 0.673 0.675 0.634 0.767 0.889 $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ 0.685 0.675 0.654 0.793 0.897 0.675 0.681 0.660 0.772 0.879 0.680 0.644 0.607 0.761 0.902 90% 0.841 0.798 0.751 0.915 0.969 0.805 0.779 0.761 0.879 0.944 0.857 0.808 0.777 0.910 0.948 $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ $\cdots$ 0.839 0.823 0.694 0.893 0.963 0.790 0.797 0.721 0.901 0.961 0.804 0.786 0.740 0.888 0.961
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