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多元混沌时间序列的相关状态机预测模型研究

韩敏 许美玲 任伟杰

韩敏, 许美玲, 任伟杰. 多元混沌时间序列的相关状态机预测模型研究. 自动化学报, 2014, 40(5): 822-829. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1004.2014.00822
引用本文: 韩敏, 许美玲, 任伟杰. 多元混沌时间序列的相关状态机预测模型研究. 自动化学报, 2014, 40(5): 822-829. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1004.2014.00822
HAN Min, XU Mei-Ling, REN Wei-Jie. Research on Multivariate Chaotic Time Series Prediction Using mRSM Model. ACTA AUTOMATICA SINICA, 2014, 40(5): 822-829. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1004.2014.00822
Citation: HAN Min, XU Mei-Ling, REN Wei-Jie. Research on Multivariate Chaotic Time Series Prediction Using mRSM Model. ACTA AUTOMATICA SINICA, 2014, 40(5): 822-829. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1004.2014.00822

多元混沌时间序列的相关状态机预测模型研究

doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1004.2014.00822
基金项目: 

国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430403),国家自然科学基金(61374154)资助

详细信息
    作者简介:

    许美玲 大连理工大学电子信息与电气工程学部博士研究生. 2011 年获得大连理工大学工学学士学位. 主要研究方向为神经网络和多元时间序列预测.E-mail:xuml@mail.dlut.edu.cn

Research on Multivariate Chaotic Time Series Prediction Using mRSM Model

Funds: 

Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (2013CB430403), National Natural Science Foundation of China (61374154)

  • 摘要: 针对多元混沌时间序列预测存在的过拟合问题及高维输入变量冗余问题,提出一种新型的多变量稀疏化预测模型——多元相关状态机.该模型采用主成分分析方法对相空间重构后的高维输入变量进行低维表示,将动态储备池作为相关向量机的核函数,充分映射多元混沌时间序列的动力学特性,使得模型具有丰富的动态机制和良好的稀疏性能,有效避免过拟合问题,提高预测精度.基于两组多元混沌时间序列的仿真实验验证了模型的有效性.
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2013-01-17
  • 修回日期:  2013-08-01
  • 刊出日期:  2014-05-20

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