恐怖组织网络的时空演化规律

李本先; 李孟军; 方锦清; 仰琎歆

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1004.2013.00770

恐怖组织网络的时空演化规律

doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1004.2013.00770 cstr: 32138.14.SP.J.1004.2013.00770

1.
国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院长沙 410073;
2.
中国科学院原子能科学研究所北京 102413;
3.
安徽师范大学芜湖 241000

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(61174151, 60874087)和中国原子能研究院基金(YZ2011-20)资助

详细信息

通讯作者:
李本先

计量
- 文章访问数: 1791
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- PDF下载量: 2125
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2012-10-10
- 修回日期: 2012-10-26
- 刊出日期: 2013-06-20

Empirical Study on Spatiotemporal Evolution of Terrorism Organization Network

1.
School of Information System and Management, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073;
2.
Institute of Atomic Energy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 102413;
3.
Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000

Funds:

Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(61174151, 60874087)and China Institute of Atomic Energy Science Foundation(YZ2011-20)

摘要

摘要: 为了理解恐怖组织网络的时空演化特性及形成机理,本文运用统计物理学方法,结合Multi-agent,提出了一个恐怖组织网络的时空演化模型, 并对恐怖组织网络的演化规律进行了数值模拟研究.模拟过程中考虑了恐怖组织网络在时间与空间上节点与边的动态联结变化.研究发现:网络演化过程中, 恐怖组织的网络演化不仅兼具小世界、无标度特性和等级结构,不同级别的中心节点将网络连为一体,而且存在促进恐怖网络不断演化的主要因素, 即与恐怖分子信念的增加及环境资源的增长有关; 反恐方的选择性打击对网络的增长具有抑制作用和一定的控制效果.
- 恐怖组织网络 /
- 时空演化 /
- 小世界 /
- 无标度 /
- 信念及资源
Abstract: To understand spatiotemporal evolution of terrorism organization network and reveal its information mechanism. In this paper, from the view of network science, statistical physics and multi-agent method are proposed to explore time-space evolution of terrorism organization network. The model of time-space evolution is presented to understand terrorism organization network. In the evolution process, dynamical (correction) changes of nodes and edges with time and space for terrorism organization network are considered by designing algorithm. It is found in numerical simulation that, the evolution of terrorism organization network possess small-world effect and scale-free property at the same time, and the whole network have hierarchical structure with different level centre nodes. Increasing factors of belief and resource can also effect on continuous evolution of network. If government around the world take effectively selected measures to attack the terrorism organization, which can be inhibited to a certain extent or under control. But the counter terrorism is the future still a long-term arduous.
- Terrorism organization network /
- spatiotemporal evolution /
- small-world /
- scale-free /
- belief and resource

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