Research on Operational Safety Assessment for Spacecraft Launch System: Progress and Challenges
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摘要: 航天发射作为人类太空活动最为基础和最为重要的环节之一，是评判一个国家综合国力的重要指标，而航天发射系统运行安全性评估作为现代航天发射控制指挥与决策系统的核心，是保证航天发射安全运行的基础.首先，本文概述了现代航天发射系统，简要回顾了系统安全性研究发展历程，阐述了航天发射系统运行安全性评估的内涵.其次，通过综述航天发射系统运行故障检测与诊断、异常运行工况识别、运行过程安全分析与预测、安全性动态评估技术等方面的研究现状的基础上，总结出了航天发射系统运行安全性评估面临着系统极度复杂、决策风险性极大、先验信息少以及评估结果要求高准确性与实时性等方面的挑战.最后，本文对航天发射系统运行安全性评估有待研究的基础前沿问题进行了思考.Abstract: The spacecraft launch system is not only one of the most basic and the most important parts in human space activities but also an important indicator for judging a country's overall national strength. The operational safety assessment of the spacecraft launch system can be considered as the core of modern spacecraft launch control command and decision system. It is the basis for ensuring the safe operation of spacecraft launches. The modern spacecraft launch system is outlined and the development of system safety research is briefly reviewed. The connotation of the operational safety assessment of the spacecraft launch system is explained. Secondly, it focuses on the research progress of operational fault detection and diagnosis, abnormal operational condition identification, operational processes safety analysis and prediction, safety dynamic evaluation technology. Additionally, the challenges on the operational safety assessment of spacecraft launch system are discussed, including extremely complexity in practical system, great risk in decision-marking, little prior information, high accuracy and real-time evaluation results. Finally, the basic and systemic issues of the future research for the operational safety assessment of spacecraft launch system are pondered.1) 本文责任编委 潘泉
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图 1 航天发射控制指挥与决策系统示意图
Fig. 1 The diagram of space launch control command and decision system
图 2 航天发射系统运行安全性分析与评估的内涵
Fig. 2 The connotation of operational safety analysis and assessment of spacecraft launch system
表 1 近年来部分航天发射场的安全问题统计
Table 1 The statistics on safety issues in some space launch sites in recent years
时间 后果 国别 原因 1960-10-24 160多名专家死亡. 前苏联 异常抢修过程中, 第二级引擎意外点燃. 2003-08-22 VLS火箭最后测试中爆炸, 21人死亡. 巴西 火箭主体内一个发动机的点火装置出现故障. 2010-11-05 “发现”号航天飞机第五次推迟发射. 美国 “发现”号外部燃料箱加注液氢和液氧燃料两小时后, 外部燃料箱的一个通风孔出现了氢气泄漏. 2011-04-29 “奋进”号航天飞机推迟至少48小时起飞. 美国 “奋进”号航天飞机附属电力装置加热器出现技术故障, 5次推迟后才成功. 2012-11-29 “罗老号”运载火箭和发射台的连接部分故障, 第三次延期发射. 韩国 “罗老号”第一段火箭的高压、超低温液态气体压力不足, 导致阀门异常开合. 2013-07-02 三颗格洛纳斯M导航卫星化为灰烬. 俄罗斯 发射几秒钟后, 质子M火箭失控并爆炸. 2013-08-27 日本新型火箭发射前19秒出现异常, 中止发射. 日本 地面计算机“LCS (发射控制系统)”向火箭上的计算机“OBC (板载计算机)”数据交换出现了0.07秒的时间差. 2014-11-26 载有欧洲通讯卫星“Astra-G”的运载火箭“质子-M”推迟发射. 俄罗斯 俄罗斯航天局:在检查助推器时查出指令系统故障, 更换故障仪器. 2015-01-06 猎鹰9号运载火箭在倒计时1分钟时, 发射任务紧急中止. 美国 由于火箭“二级推力矢量控制驱动器发生漂移”导致火箭在倒计时1分钟时发射任务紧急中止. 2017-11-28 未能将卫星载荷送入预定轨道, 发射失败. 俄罗斯 联盟2.1b运载火箭由于上面级火箭出现故障, 失败. 
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