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摘要: 提出了一种基于区间二型模糊集合理论的人工交通系统可信度评估方法.该方法以二型模糊集合算法为核心数据处理方法，构建了人工交通系统的评估体系.利用置信区间方法提取实际交通数据和人工交通数据的统计特征，同时为二型模糊集合提供了输入数据.利用二型模糊集合处理不确定性、随机性和噪声数据的能力，得到刻画实际交通系统和人工交通系统特性的输出数据集.并基于Jaccard算法对两个系统二型模糊集合的输出集进行了相似度运算，以Cronbach系数值为依据，实现了人工交通系统的可信度评估.与传统可信度评估方法相比，该评估方法具有较强的数据处理能力，有效地实现了基于数据驱动方法理念下人工系统与实际系统之间的比较.本文基于面向对象编程语言搭建开发的基于Agent的人工交通系统模型，对其进行了可信度评估验证，评估结果说明了所提出方法的合理性和有效性.Abstract: In this paper, a method to assess the credibility of artificial traffic system based on the interval type-2 fuzzy sets theory is proposed. Combined with the interval algorithm and Jaccard algorithm, an evaluation system is built. The confidence interval approach is utilized to extract the statistical characteristics of data from actual and artificial systems, which at the same time provide the input data for type-2 fuzzy sets. By using the Jaccard algorithm, the similarity of the output set of fuzzy-2 sets is figured out. Based on the Cronbach coefficient, the credibility of the artificial transportation system is realized. Compared with the traditional credibility assessment method, this assessment method has a strong data processing ability to implement the comparison of two systems. In order to verify the effectiveness and rationality of the evaluation system, this paper builds an artificial traffic system model using the agent modeling method to evaluate its credibility. The evaluation results show that the method is reasonable and effective.1) 本文责任编委 莫红
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图 1 基于二型模糊集合理论的人工交通系统评估过程
Fig. 1 Artificial traffic system assessment process based on type-2 fuzzy set theory
图 5 三个候车站实际候车乘客数据和对应的人工交通系统候车乘客人数数据的二型模糊集合
Fig. 5 Two-type fuzzy set of three stations actual data and corresponding simulation data
表 1 三个公交车站上车人数的实际调研数据和人工交通系统运行数据
Table 1 The actual data and simulation data of people get on the three bus stops
时段 实际系统第1站 仿真系统第1站 实际系统第2站 仿真系统第2站 仿真系统第3站 实际系统第3站 3:00 $\sim$ 3:05 9 13 8 15 4 5 3:06 $\sim$ 3:10 10 15 10 13 0 1 3:11 $\sim$ 3:15 14 9 5 8 3 3 3:16 $\sim$ 3:20 0 25 6 9 1 2 3:21 $\sim$ 3:25 29 20 16 0 6 3 3:26 $\sim$ 3:30 25 3 11 19 3 5 3:31 $\sim$ 3:35 15 17 5 6 4 8 3:36 $\sim$ 3:40 10 0 7 6 3 2 3:41 $\sim$ 3:45 15 9 8 0 5 1 3:46 $\sim$ 3:50 19 15 6 11 1 0 3:51 $\sim$ 3:55 9 21 10 9 4 4 3:56 $\sim$ 4:00 19 4 16 18 0 2 
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表 2 三个公交车站上车人数模糊化以后的实际数据和仿真数据
Table 2 The actual data and simulation data after fuzzified of people get on the three bus stops
时段 实际系统第1站 仿真系统第1站 实际系统第2站 仿真系统第2站 仿真系统第3站 实际系统第3站 3:00 $\sim$ 3:05 2 4 3 5 3 5 6 8 3 5 4 6 3:06 $\sim$ 3:10 2 4 4 6 4 6 6 8 0 1 0 2 3:11 $\sim$ 3:15 3 5 2 4 1 3 3 5 2 4 2 4 3:16 $\sim$ 3:20 0 1 7 9 2 4 3 5 0 2 1 3 3:21 $\sim$ 3:25 6 8 6 8 7 9 0 1 5 7 2 4 3:26 $\sim$ 3:30 6 8 0 2 4 6 5 7 2 4 4 6 3:31 $\sim$ 3:35 4 6 5 7 1 3 2 4 3 5 7 9 3:36 $\sim$ 3:40 2 4 0 1 3 5 2 4 2 4 1 3 3:41 $\sim$ 3:45 4 6 2 4 3 5 0 1 4 6 0 2 3:46 $\sim$ 3:50 5 7 4 6 2 4 4 6 0 2 0 1 3:51 $\sim$ 3:55 2 4 6 8 4 6 4 6 3 5 3 5 3:56 $\sim$ 4:00 5 7 0 2 7 9 8 9 0 1 1 3
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表 3 可信度值与Cronbach系数的关系
Table 3 The relationship between the value of credibility and Cronbach coefficient
系统可信程度 Cronbach系数(可信度） 不可信 $ < 0.3$ 勉强可信 $0.3 \leq\alpha < 0.4$ 可信 $0.4 \leq\alpha < 0.5$ 很可信(最常见) $0.5 \leq\alpha < 0.7$ 很可信(次常见) $0.7 \leq\alpha < 0.9$ 十分可信 $0.9 \leq\alpha$
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