Fault Prognosis of Marine Diesel Engine With Working State Transition Based on EIIKF
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摘要: 船舶柴油机作为大多数船舶的动力源泉，具有十分重要的地位，其健康状态直接影响了船舶的稳定运行.由于船舶柴油机具有工作环境复杂且工况多变的特点，不利于传统故障预测方法的应用.本文提出了一种增强型间歇性未知输入卡尔曼滤波器，可以有效降低建模的复杂度，应对具有不同的工作状态的参数预测.最后本文提出并使用改进的序贯概率比检验进行残差处理，减小故障误报.仿真结果表明，该方法可以较好地对船舶柴油机系统故障进行预测.Abstract: The marine diesel engine serves as the power source of most vessels, which has a very important position. Its health status directly affect the ship's stable operation. The traditional fault prognosis methods are difficult to apply to the marine diesel engine due to its different operating environments and work patterns. In this paper, we propose an enhanced intermittent unknown input Kalman filter which can effectively reduce the complexity of modeling and deal with the fault prognosis with different working modes. Also this paper uses the improved sequential probability ratio test for residual processing to reduce the probability of false alarm. According to the simulation results, the proposed method demonstrated superiority and feasibility in fault prognosis for the marine diesel engine.1) 本文责任编委 郭戈
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图 1 三种算法对排气温度的预测结果比较
Fig. 1 The comparison of parameter prediction results for exhaust temperature of three algorithms
图 2 三种算法对具有工作状态转换的排气温度预测结果
Fig. 2 The prediction results of exhaust gas temperature with working state transition by three algorithms
图 3 EIIKF对加入和未加入未知输入时的排气温度预测结果
Fig. 3 The prediction results of exhaust gas temperature with and without unknown input by EIIKF
图 4 EIIKF排气温度的预测结果及三倍标准差残差判断
Fig. 4 The prediction result of exhaust gas temperature use EIIKF and three-sigma range residual judgment
图 5 序贯概率比检验和改进序贯概率比检验结果对比
Fig. 5 The comparison of sequential probability ratio test results and improved sequential probability ratio test results
表 1 三种算法参数预测误差对比表
Table 1 The residual comparison of three algorithms for parameter prognosis
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表 2 几种方法残差处理对比表
Table 2 comparison of several methods for residual processing
故障 判断参数 三倍标准差 序贯概率比检验 支持向量机 改进序贯概率比检验 误判率 0.12 % 0.47 % 0.71 % 0.12 % 故障1 漏判率 53.43 % 32.27 % 40.77 % 23.86 % 精确度 79.67 % 87.47 % 84.1 % 90.88 % 误判率 5.44 % 9 % 7.44 % 0 故障2 漏判率 40.31 % 4.06 % 41.23 % 14.48 % 精确度 76.56 % 93.55 % 75.12 % 92.53 % 误判率 0.44 % 3 % 7.89 % 0 故障3 漏判率 54.17 % 36.56 % 42.49 % 38.33 % 精确度 71.83 % 79.68 % 74.35 % 80.22 %
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表 3 IIKF和EIIKF故障预测对比表
Table 3 The comparison of IIKF and EIIKF for fault prognosis
IIKF EIIKF 预测情况 预判延误 预测情况 预判延误 故障1 正确 375 正确 252 故障2 错误 正确 248 故障3 正确 158 正确 79
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