2.845

2023影响因子

(CJCR)

  • 中文核心
  • EI
  • 中国科技核心
  • Scopus
  • CSCD
  • 英国科学文摘

留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

基于证据推理的动态系统安全性在线评估方法

赵福均 周志杰 胡昌华 常雷雷 王力

连峰, 吕宁, 韩崇昭. 群目标联合检测与估计误差界的递推形式. 自动化学报, 2015, 41(12): 2026-2035. doi: 10.16383/j.aas.2015.c140794
引用本文: 赵福均, 周志杰, 胡昌华, 常雷雷, 王力. 基于证据推理的动态系统安全性在线评估方法. 自动化学报, 2017, 43(11): 1950-1961. doi: 10.16383/j.aas.2017.c160384
LIAN Feng, LV Ning, HAN Chong-Zhao. The Recursive Form of Error Bound for Joint Detection and Estimation of Groups. ACTA AUTOMATICA SINICA, 2015, 41(12): 2026-2035. doi: 10.16383/j.aas.2015.c140794
Citation: ZHAO Fu-Jun, ZHOU Zhi-Jie, HU Chang-Hua, CHANG Lei-Lei, WANG Li. Online Safety Assessment Method Based on Evidential Reasoning for Dynamic Systems. ACTA AUTOMATICA SINICA, 2017, 43(11): 1950-1961. doi: 10.16383/j.aas.2017.c160384

基于证据推理的动态系统安全性在线评估方法

doi: 10.16383/j.aas.2017.c160384
基金项目: 

中国博士后科学基金面上项目 2015M570847

国家自然科学基金 61773388

装备预研基金 9140A19030314JB47276

飞行器海上测量与控制联合实验室开放基金 FOM2015OF017

国家自然科学基金 60736026

国家自然科学基金 71601180

飞行器海上测量与控制联合实验室开放基金 FOM2014OF14

陕西省自然科学基金项目 2015JM6354

国家自然科学基金 61370031

详细信息
    作者简介:

    赵福均  火箭军工程大学控制工程系硕士研究生.主要研究方向为证据推理, 信息融合, 安全性评估.E-mail:fujunzhao@hotmail.com

    胡昌华  火箭军工程大学控制工程系教授.1996年获得西北工业大学博士学位.主要研究方向为故障诊断与预测, 可靠性工程, 寿命预测和容错控制.E-mail:hch6603@263.net

    常雷雷  火箭军工程大学装备管理工程系讲师.2014年获得国防科学技术大学博士学位.主要研究方向为置信规则库学习与优化, 武器装备体系评估与优化.E-mail:leileichang@hotmail.com

    王力  火箭军工程大学控制工程系硕士研究生.主要研究方向为证据推理, 置信规则库.E-mail:29894431@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    周志杰  火箭军工程大学控制工程系副教授.2010年获得清华大学博士学位.主要研究方向为置信规则库, 证据推理, 动态系统建模, 动态系统故障预测, 最优监测及视情维护.本文通信作者.E-mail:zhouzj04@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn

Online Safety Assessment Method Based on Evidential Reasoning for Dynamic Systems

Funds: 

China Postdoctoral Science Foundation 2015M570847

National Natural Science Foundation of China 61773388

Assembly Research Foundation 9140A19030314JB47276

the Open Funding Programme of Joint Laboratory of Flight Vehicle Ocean-based Measurement and Control FOM2015OF017

National Natural Science Foundation of China 60736026

National Natural Science Foundation of China 71601180

the Open Funding Programme of Joint Laboratory of Flight Vehicle Ocean-based Measurement and Control FOM2014OF14

Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province 2015JM6354

National Natural Science Foundation of China 61370031

More Information
    Author Bio:

     Master student in the Department of Control Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering. His research interest covers evidential reasoning, information fusion, and safety assessment

     Professor in the Department of Control Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering. He received his Ph. D. degree from North Western Polytechnic University in 1996. His research interest covers fault diagnosis and prediction, reliability engineering, life prognosis and fault tolerant control

     Lecturer in the Department of Management Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering. He received his Ph. D. degree from the National University of Defense Technology in 2014. His research interest covers belief rule base, weapons and equipment system of system engineering related assessment and optimization

     Master student in the Department of Control Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering. His research interest covers evidential reasoning, belief rule base

    Corresponding author: ZHUO Zhi-Jie  Associate professor in the Department of Control Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering. He received his Ph. D. degree from Tsinghua University in 2010. His research interest covers belief rule base, evidential reasoning, dynamic system modeling, fault prognosis and optimal maintenance of dynamic system. Corresponding author of this paper
  • 摘要: 综合考虑动态系统历史记录、当前状态以及未来退化趋势信息来对其安全性进行在线评估是极其重要的.本文提出了一种基于证据推理(Evidential reasoning,ER)的安全性在线评估方法.该方法先融合多个安全性指标获得各个时刻的安全性状态,而后融合系统"历史"、"当前"、"未来"时刻的安全性状态,评估得到系统的综合安全性水平.首先,建立了基于三阶Volterra滤波器的在线预测模型,预测指标未来信息;然后,建立了指标最优自适应权重求取模型,计算并更新指标实时权重;最后,提出了基于证据推理方法的融合框架,对"历史"、"当前"、"未来"时刻的信息进行融合,得到系统当前时刻的综合安全性评估结果.通过对某惯性平台系统的安全性评估实例验证了所提方法的有效性.

  • 本文责任编委 周东华
  • 图  1  新的安全性在线评估模型结构

    Fig.  1  The structure of the new online safety assessment model

    图  2  新的在线安全性评估方法实现步骤

    Fig.  2  Implementation steps of the new online safety assessment method

    图  3  漂移系数测试数据

    Fig.  3  Test data of drift coefficients

    图  4  漂移系数在线预测

    Fig.  4  Online prediction of drift coefficients

    图  5  漂移系数预测误差

    Fig.  5  Prediction error of the drift coefficients

    图  6  漂移系数的最优自适应权重

    Fig.  6  Optimal adaptive weight of the drift coefficients

    图  7  惯性平台系统安全性状态的分布式评估结果

    Fig.  7  Distributed safety state results of the inertial platform system

    图  8  惯性平台系统安全性分布式评估结果

    Fig.  8  Distributed safety assessment results of the inertial platform system

    图  9  平台系统安全性评估期望效用

    Fig.  9  Expected utility of safety assessment of the platform system

    表  1  漂移系数评估等级对应的参考点

    Table  1  The referential points of drift coefficients

    语义值 ${F_1}$ ${F_2}$ ${F_3}$
    ${K_0}$对应的效用(d/h)0.020.040.06
    ${K_1}$对应的效用(d/h*g)0.0150.030.05
    下载: 导出CSV
  • [1] 周东华, 史建涛, 何潇.动态系统间歇故障诊断技术综述.自动化学报, 2014, 40(2):161-171 http://www.aas.net.cn/CN/abstract/abstract18279.shtml

    Zhou Dong-Hua, Shi Jian-Tao, He Xiao. Review of intermittent fault diagnosis techniques for dynamic systems. Acta Automatica Sinica, 2014, 40(2):161-171 http://www.aas.net.cn/CN/abstract/abstract18279.shtml
    [2] 李文博, 王大轶, 刘成瑞.动态系统实际故障可诊断性的量化评价研究.自动化学报, 2015, 41(3):497-507 http://www.aas.net.cn/CN/abstract/abstract18628.shtml

    Li Wen-Bo, Wang Da-Yi, Liu Cheng-Rui. Quantitative evaluation of actual fault diagnosability for dynamic systems. Acta Automatica Sinica, 2015, 41(3):497-507 http://www.aas.net.cn/CN/abstract/abstract18628.shtml
    [3] 司小胜, 胡昌华, 周志杰.基于证据推理的故障预报模型.中国科学:信息科学, 2010, 40(7):954-967

    Si Xiao-Sheng, Hu Chang-Hua, Zhou Zhi-Jie. Fault prediction model based on evidential reasoning approach. Science China Information Sciences, 2010, 40(7):954-967
    [4] Siu N. Risk assessment for dynamic systems:an overview. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 1994, 43(1):43-73 http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/OAPaper/oai_doaj-articles_ba2355fe34705770023b1e5ffac29588
    [5] Eryilmaz S. Dynamic assessment of multi-state systems using phase-type modeling. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2015, 140:71-77 doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.03.037
    [6] Wu D D, Chen S H, Olson D L. Business intelligence in risk management:some recent progresses. Information Sciences, 2014, 256:1-7 doi: 10.1016/j.ins.2013.10.008
    [7] Zhou Z J, Chang L L, Hu C H, Han X X, Zhou Z G. A new BRB-ER-based model for assessing the lives of products using both failure data and expert knowledge. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics:Systems, 2016, 46(11):1529-1543 doi: 10.1109/TSMC.2015.2504047
    [8] Vališ. Contribution to reliability and safety assessment of systems. Safety & Reliability, 2007, 27(3):23-35 http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/OAPaper/oai_doaj-articles_96e6a29d79409e9369683e36726e859a
    [9] Hu J Q, Zhang L B, Liang W. An adaptive online safety assessment method for mechanical system with pre-warning function. Safety Science, 2012, 50(3):385-399 doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2011.09.018
    [10] Stamatelatos M, Dezfuli H, Apostolakis G, Everline C, Guarro S, Mathias D, Mosleh A, Paulos T, Riha D, Smith C, Vesely W, Youngblood R. Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners, NASA/SP-2011-3421, NASA Center for AeroSpace Information, 2011.
    [11] Fullwood R R. Probabilistic Safety Assessment in the Chemical and Nuclear Industries. Boston, MA:Butterworth-Heinemann, 2000.
    [12] Durga Rao K, Gopika V, Sanyasi Rao V V S, Kushwahaa H S, Vermab A K, Srividyab A. Dynamic fault tree analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in probabilistic safety assessment. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2009, 94(4):872-883
    [13] Verma A K, Ajit S, Karanki D R. Probabilistic safety assessment. Reliability and Safety Engineering (Second edition). London:Springer-Verlag, 2016. 333-372 http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/zngydxxb-e201105043
    [14] 王晨. 基于状态监测的输变电设备状态评估及故障预警[硕士学位论文], 华北电力大学, 中国, 2015

    Wang Chen. Condition Assessment of Transmission Equipment based on Condition Monitoring and Failure Alert[Master dissertation], School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, China, 2015
    [15] 江寅虎. 基于状态监测的旋转部件可靠性评估方法研究[硕士学位论文], 大连理工大学, 中国, 2014

    Jiang Yin-Hu. Reliability Evaluation Method Research based on Condition Monitoring for Rotating Parts[Master dissertation], Dalian University of Technology, China, 2014
    [16] 万明杰, 周光辉, 程元森, 靳小莉.基于运行状态信息的数控珩磨机液压系统可靠性预测方法.应用科技, 2013, 39(6):30-33 http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/yykj201206006

    Fang Ming-Jie, Zhou Guang-Hui, Chen Yuan-Sen, Jin Xiao-Li. Reliability prediction for hydraulic system of CNC honing machine based on the operational status information. Applied Science and Technology, 2013, 39(6):30-33 http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/yykj201206006
    [17] Hermans E, Van den Bossche F, Wets G. Combining road safety information in a performance index. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2008, 40(4):1337-1344
    [18] Yang J B, Liu J, Wang J, Sii H S, Wang H W. Belief rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach-RIMER. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics-Part A:Systems and Humans, 2006, 36(2):266-285 doi: 10.1109/TSMCA.2005.851270
    [19] Yang J B, Wang Y M, Xu D L, Chin K S. The evidential reasoning approach for MADA under both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties. European Journal of Operational Research, 2006, 171(1):309-343 doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2004.09.017
    [20] Zhou Z J, Hu C H, Yang J B, Xu D L, Zhou D H. Online updating belief-rule-base using the RIMER approach. IEEE Transactions on System, Man, and Cybernetics-Part A:Systems and Humans, 2011, 41(6):1225-1243 doi: 10.1109/TSMCA.2011.2147312
    [21] Zhou Z J, Hu C H, Zhang B C, Xu D L, Chen Y W. Hidden behavior prediction of complex systems based on hybrid information. IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics, 2013, 43(2):402-411 doi: 10.1109/TSMCB.2012.2208266
    [22] 王敏. 大电网在线安全评估的理论与方法研究[硕士学位论文], 华中科技大学, 中国, 2013

    Wang Min. Research on Theory and Methods of Online Dynamic Security Assessment of Large Scale Power System[Master dissertation], Huazhong University of Science & Technology, China, 2013
    [23] Wang Y M, Elhag T M S. Evidential reasoning approach for bridge condition assessment. Expert Systems with Applications, 2008, 34(1):689-699 doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2006.10.006
    [24] Nowak R D, Van Veen B D. Volterra filter equalization:a fixed point approach. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 1997, 45(2):377-388 doi: 10.1109/78.554302
    [25] 韦保林, 罗晓曙, 王秉宏, 全宏俊, 郭伟, 傅金阶.一种基于三阶Volterra滤波器的混沌时间序列自适应预测方法.物理学报, 2002, 51(10):2205-2210 doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-3290.2002.10.007

    Wei Bao-Lin, Luo Xiao-Shu, Wang Bing-Hong, Quan Hong-Jun, Guo Wei, Fu Jin-Jie. A method based on the third-order Volterra filter for adaptive predictions of chaotic time series. Acta Physica Sinica, 2002, 51(10):2205-2210 doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-3290.2002.10.007
    [26] 张家树, 肖先赐.用于混沌时间序列自适应预测的一种少参数二阶Volterra滤波器.物理学报, 2001, 50(7):1248-1254 doi: 10.7498/aps.50.1248

    Zhang Jia-Shu, Xiao Xian-Ci. A reduced parameter second-order Volterra filter with application to nonlinear adaptive prediction of chaotic time series. Acta Physica Sinica, 2001, 50(7):1248-1254 doi: 10.7498/aps.50.1248
    [27] Kalluri S, Arce G R. A general class of nonlinear normalized adaptive filtering algorithms. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 1999, 47(8):2262-2272 doi: 10.1109/78.774769
    [28] Yang J B, Xu D L. Evidential reasoning rule for evidence combination. Artificial Intelligence, 2013, 205:1-29 doi: 10.1016/j.artint.2013.09.003
    [29] Lo T P, Guo S J. Effective weighting model based on the maximum deviation with uncertain information. Expert Systems with Applications, 2010, 37(12):8445-8449 doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2010.05.034
    [30] Sheret M. The coefficient of variation:weighting considerations. Social Indicators Research, 1984, 15(3):289-295 doi: 10.1007/BF00668675
    [31] Yang J B. Rule and utility based evidential reasoning approach for multiattribute decision analysis under uncertainties. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001, 131(1):31-61 doi: 10.1016/S0377-2217(99)00441-5
    [32] Wang Y M, Yang J B, Xu D L. Environmental impact assessment using the evidential reasoning approach. European Journal of Operational Research, 2006, 174(3):1885-1913 doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2004.09.059
    [33] Zhou Z J, Hu C H, Wang W B, Zhang B C, Xu D L, Zheng J F. Condition-based maintenance of dynamic systems using online failure prognosis and belief rule base. Expert Systems with Applications, 2012, 39(6):6140-6149 doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2011.11.068
    [34] Yang J B, Xu D L. Nonlinear information aggregation via evidential reasoning in multiattribute decision analysis under uncertainty. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics——Part A:Systems and Humans, 2002, 32(3):376-393 doi: 10.1109/TSMCA.2002.802809
    [35] 宋亚飞, 王晓丹, 雷蕾, 邢雅琼.基于证据理论和混淆矩阵的传感器可靠性评估.控制与决策, 2015, 30(6):1111-1115 http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/kzyjc201506022

    Song Ya-Fei, Wang Xiao-Dan, Lei Lei, Xing Ya-Qiong. Evaluating dynamic reliability of sensors based on evidence theory and confusion matrix. Control and Decision, 2015, 30(6):1111-1115 http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/kzyjc201506022
    [36] Elouedi Z, Mellouli K, Smets P. Assessing sensor reliability for multisensor data fusion within the transferable belief model. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B (Cybernetics), 2004, 34(1):782-787 doi: 10.1109/TSMCB.2003.817056
    [37] 徐晓滨, 王玉成, 文成林.评估诊断证据可靠性的信息融合故障诊断方法.控制理论与应用, 2011, 28(4):504-510 http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/kzllyyy201104010

    Xu Xiao-Bin, Wang Yu-Cheng, Wen Cheng-Lin. Information-fusion method for fault diagnosis based on reliability evaluation of evidence. Control Theory & Applications, 2011, 28(4):504-510 http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/kzllyyy201104010
  • 期刊类型引用(29)

    1. 李倩,聂简,黄鸿殿,孔庆宇,奔粤阳. 基于大脑海马认知机理的主从式AUV协同定位方法. 中国惯性技术学报. 2024(01): 27-33 . 百度学术
    2. 游雄,李科,田江鹏,杨剑,余岸竹,贾奋励. 机器地图信息加工模型. 武汉大学学报(信息科学版). 2024(04): 516-526 . 百度学术
    3. 高昊,王仁茂. 基于类脑仿生的环境感知技术. 舰船电子对抗. 2024(05): 42-46+55 . 百度学术
    4. 陈荟慧,钟委钊. 基于人机协作的高质量城市图像采集方法. 应用科学学报. 2023(05): 801-814 . 百度学术
    5. 朱祥维,沈丹,肖凯,马岳鑫,廖祥,古富强,余芳文,高柯夫,刘经南. 类脑导航的机理、算法、实现与展望. 航空学报. 2023(19): 6-38 . 百度学术
    6. 于乃功,廖诣深. 基于鼠脑内嗅—海马认知机制的移动机器人空间定位模型. 生物医学工程学杂志. 2022(02): 217-227 . 百度学术
    7. 刘溢,阳加远,张驰. 一种基于RTX的移动机器人实时控制平台. 电子技术与软件工程. 2022(08): 169-172 . 百度学术
    8. 于子航,王改云. 基于路径积分强化的机器人目标导向运动控制. 计算机仿真. 2022(07): 412-415+516 . 百度学术
    9. 董卫华,刘毅龙,黑巧松,杨天宇. 泛地图空间认知理论与方法研究框架. 武汉大学学报(信息科学版). 2022(12): 2007-2014 . 百度学术
    10. 阮晓钢,李鹏,朱晓庆,刘鹏飞. 基于目标导向行为和空间拓扑记忆的视觉导航方法. 计算机学报. 2021(03): 594-608 . 百度学术
    11. 赵辰豪,吴德伟,韩昆,代传金. 无环境信息下多尺度网格细胞群空间表征模型. 系统工程与电子技术. 2021(03): 814-822 . 百度学术
    12. 阮晓钢,柴洁,武悦,张晓平,黄静. 基于海马体位置细胞的认知地图构建与导航. 自动化学报. 2021(03): 666-677 . 本站查看
    13. 冀俊忠,刘金铎,邹爱笑,杨翠翠. 一种融合多源信息的脑效应连接网络蚁群学习算法. 自动化学报. 2021(04): 864-881 . 本站查看
    14. 万刚,武易天. 地图空间认知的数学基础. 测绘学报. 2021(06): 726-738 . 百度学术
    15. 洪涛,史涛,任红格. 一种改进型RatSLAM算法构建认知地图的研究. 现代计算机. 2021(21): 47-52 . 百度学术
    16. 韩昆,吴德伟,来磊. 类脑导航中基于差分Hebbian学习的网格细胞构建模型. 系统工程与电子技术. 2020(03): 674-679 . 百度学术
    17. 黄宜庆,王正刚,王徽,葛愿. 基于边缘梯度算法的多移动机器人协作地图构建. 信息与控制. 2020(01): 62-68 . 百度学术
    18. 于乃功,廖诣深,郑相国. 一种基于海马位置细胞选择机制的空间认知模型. 生物医学工程学杂志. 2020(01): 27-37 . 百度学术
    19. 胡小平,毛军,范晨,张礼廉,何晓峰,韩国良,范颖. 仿生导航技术综述. 导航定位与授时. 2020(04): 1-10 . 百度学术
    20. 于乃功,冯慧,廖诣深,郑相国. 一种基于感知速度与感知角度的网格野计算模型. 生物医学工程学杂志. 2020(05): 863-874 . 百度学术
    21. 晁丽君,熊智,杨闯,华冰,王雅婷,刘建业. 无人飞行器三维类脑SLAM自主导航方法. 飞控与探测. 2020(05): 35-43 . 百度学术
    22. 张孝伍. 图上的概率分布及位置方向信息的表征方法. 青岛理工大学学报. 2019(01): 113-121 . 百度学术
    23. 方略,何洪军. 基于鼠脑海马位置细胞与Q学习面向目标导航. 生物信息学. 2019(01): 31-38 . 百度学术
    24. 王均,凌有铸,王静. 基于特征融合的仿生SLAM算法研究. 安徽工程大学学报. 2019(02): 26-33 . 百度学术
    25. 刘建业,杨闯,熊智,赖际舟,熊骏. 无人机类脑吸引子神经网络导航技术. 导航定位与授时. 2019(05): 52-60 . 百度学术
    26. 韩昆,吴德伟,来磊,杨林. 自主导航条件下网格细胞放电模型. 电子科技大学学报. 2019(05): 711-716 . 百度学术
    27. 丛明,邹强,刘冬,杜宇. 定位细胞认知机理启发的机器人导航研究综述. 机械工程学报. 2019(23): 1-12 . 百度学术
    28. 邹强,丛明,刘冬,杜宇. 仿鼠脑海马的机器人地图构建与路径规划方法. 华中科技大学学报(自然科学版). 2018(12): 83-88 . 百度学术
    29. 吴德伟,何晶,韩昆,李卉. 无人作战平台认知导航及其类脑实现思想. 空军工程大学学报(自然科学版). 2018(06): 33-38 . 百度学术

    其他类型引用(29)

  • 加载中
  • 图(9) / 表(1)
    计量
    • 文章访问数:  2514
    • HTML全文浏览量:  266
    • PDF下载量:  600
    • 被引次数: 58
    出版历程
    • 收稿日期:  2016-05-09
    • 录用日期:  2016-07-28
    • 刊出日期:  2017-11-20

    目录

      /

      返回文章
      返回