Research on Urban Development Problem by System Science and Intelligent Methods
-
摘要: 我国正处于城镇化的快速发展阶段.然而,在城镇化的过程中,决策者常常面临这样的问题:一个城市的资源能支撑多大的人口规模?对产业结构进行怎样的调整才能最大化释放人口承载力?下一年度的城市国内生产总值(Gross domestic product, GDP)增幅 定为多少合理?GDP增幅与居民消费价格指数(Consumer price index, CPI)、就业的定量关系如何?财政投资应投向哪些领域才能最大程度地提高居民满意度?哪些决策影响城市协调发展?等等.如何在城镇化的大背景下化解上述难题,做好城 市发展的顶层规划与设计,是一类重大而复杂的难题.针对此类问题,本文采用系统科学和智能方法,定性定量相结合,首先建立城市GDP、财政收入等关键指标的智能预报模型以及GDP增幅与CPI、就业的定量关系模型,在此基础上 建立城市人口承载力与城市协调发展的优化决策模型,并针对我国某大型城 市的若干重要决策场景进行了案例分析.结果表明,采用系统科学与智能方法,是研究和解决该类难题的新颖且行之有效的方法,相关成果有助于城市决策者提高决策水平,实现定性定量相结合的科学决策.Abstract: China is in the stage of rapid development of urbanization. However, policy makers often face such problems in the urbanization process: What is the maximal population scale that the resources of a city can support? How to adjust the industrial structure in order to maximize the population carrying capacity? What is the reasonable setting value of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the next year? What is the quantitative relationship between GDP growth and consumer price index (CPI), employment? Which areas should be invested in by financial investment in order to maximize resident satisfaction? What decisions affect the coordinated development of a city? And so on. How to meet these problems in the context of urbanization, and how to make good top-level plannings and designs of urban development are major and complex problems. For such problems, by using system science and intelligent methods combing qualitative and quantitative analysis, we first construct an intelligent forecasting model of key indexes of urban development such as GDP growth and government revenue, also we investigate a quantitative relationship model between GDP growth and CPI, Employment. Then we construct the optimization model for improving the urban population carrying capacity and the coordinated development of the city. We also make an extensive case study for some important decision scenarios of a large city. The results show that the proposed method is a novel and effective one which can be used to study and solve such problems, and that the experimental results may contribute to improving the decision making level of urban policy-makers, achieving scientific decision-making qualitatively and quantitatively.
-
Key words:
- Urbanization /
- complex system /
- carrying capacity /
- coordinated development /
- intelligent method
-
[1] Zhou Xi-Tan. Scientific development Correct China's city dream. Science China Press, Vol.4, 5th, June, 2013 (周熙檀. 科学发展纠偏中国城市梦. 中国科学报, 2013年6月5日第4版) [2] Wang Li-Fang, Chen Chun-Xue. Decision model and its application of the development of water environment carrying capacity and economy coordination. Science and Technology Management Research, 2010, 30(22): 214-218 (王莉芳, 陈春雪. 城市水环境承载力与经济协调决策模型及应用. 科技管理研究, 2010, 30(22): 214-218) [3] Fu Hong-Yuan, Hu Yan. Review on the studies on urban comprehensive carrying capacity. Urban Problems, 2009, (5): 27-31 (傅鸿源, 胡焱. 城市综合承载力研究综述. 城市问题, 2009, (5): 27-31) [4] Dang Xing-Hua, Zhao Jing, Zhang Ying-Xu. Research on theories and methods of measuring the coordinated development of urban agglomeration. Modern Economic Science, 2007, 29(6): 110-115, 126 (党兴华, 赵璟, 张迎旭. 城市群协调发展评价理论与方法研究. 当代经济科学, 2007, 29(6): 110-115, 126) [5] Ma Hao. The research on the imbalanced economic coordinate development in Shandong Province. China Business and Market, 2011, 25(2): 63-67 (马浩. 山东经济非均衡协调发展的战略研究. 中国流通经济, 2011, 25(2): 63-67) [6] [6] Alquier P, Li X Y. Prediction of quantiles by statistical learning and application to GDP forecasting. In: Proceedings of the 15th International Conference. Lyon, France: Springer, 2012. 22-36 [7] [7] Liliana, Napitupulu T A. Artificial neural network application in gross domestic product forecasting: an Indonesia case. In: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Advances in Computing, Control and Telecommunication Technologies (ACT). Jakarta: IEEE, 2010. 89-93 [8] Zhou Gan-Shi. Urban area as a representative complex metasystem. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2002, 2(1): 7-9 (周干峙. 城市及其区域一个典型的开放的复杂巨系统. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2002, 2(1): 7-9) [9] Qian Xue-Sen. A new discipline of science The study of open complex giant system and its methodology. Journal of University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, 2011, 33(6): 526-532 (钱学森. 一个科学新领域开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论. 上海理工大学学报, 2011, 33(6): 526-532) [10] Chinese Society for Urban Studies, Scientific Evaluation Criteria for Livable City. Released by Ministry of Construction, PRC, 30 May, 2007(中国城市科学研究会, 宜居城市科学评价标准. 建设部2007年5月公布)
计量
- 文章访问数: 1556
- HTML全文浏览量: 60
- PDF下载量: 1296
- 被引次数: 0