人口系统的稳定性理论和临界妇女生育率
On Stability Theory of Population Systems and Critical Fertility Rates of Women
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摘要: 本文对人口发展过程的李雅普诺夫稳定性进行了研究,证明了无论是用偏微分方程或差 分方程组去描述人口系统,都存在稳定性问题.文章从理论上证明了存在一个临界妇女生育 率,使人口系统处于稳定的边缘;找到了临界生育率的明显表达式,从而结束了人口学家们多 年的猜测.临界生育率由死亡率函数、育龄妇女生育模式和社会人口的性比便函数三者一意 决定.中国现阶段的临界生育率为2.17.本文得到的结果可供某些国家制定本国人口政策或 联合国制定世界人口政策参考.Abstract: This paper discusses the topic on Lyapunov stability of the population evolution proeess. It is shown that whether population systems are described in the form of partial differential equation or difference equation, there exists a problem of stability. In the paper we have theoretically proved the existence of critical fertility rate of women, which makes population systems tending to the edge of stability. Also we have derivde an cxplicit analytic expression for crictical fertility rates, thus concluding the conjecture and argument among populationistsfor decades. Critical fertility rates seem to be entirely determined by mortality functions, fertility patterns of women at their child-bearing ages and sex ratios of society population. The critical fertility at present stage in China is estimated to be 2.17. The results and conclusions Provided in this paper can be used as reference for some countries and the U. N. to tormulate their domestic or world population policies respectively.
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